More challenging, though, is getting a bigger picture of the impact, beyond the percentage of queries Google says are affected in their blog post announcements or tweeted “weather updates.”
Clay Cazier, senior director of SEO Strategy with PM Digital, offers a methodology for measuring the aggregate downstream impact of what he calls the Google Zoo, though he admits it isn't yet perfect.
“I’m not a statistician, so I’m sure there are going to be questions around the data. I think I solved most of the issues, but let this be the first step toward a more objective step toward a better look at the downstream impact, beyond opinion surveys. ” Cazier told SEW.
So what is it?
Cazier’s Impact Assessment compares year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month (MoM) drops in organic click volume on Google, segmented by verticals. He developed a custom quantifier dubbed Google Organic Click Turbulence, or GOCT, using comScore Search Planner data, to measure negative changes in Google organic clicks.
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The purpose of his research was to determine whether Panda and Penguin actually had the negative impact reported by SEOs. Early in 2012, digital marketers were surveyed to determine which of Google’s search changes had affected their business. Fifty-four percent voted for Panda. In May, 65 percent of SEOs reported less traffic after April’s Penguin update.
Do opinion-based surveys reveal the true state of search after an algorithm change, though? “A desire to measure the perceived, negative effect of Google’s updates vs. the true, statistical effect is the impetus for this whitepaper,” says Cazier. He hopes the GOCT quantifier can be discussed and refined by the SEO community.
His motivation for undertaking the analysis is a relevant question: “Given the fact that Google updates impacted at maximum 12-13 percent of U.S. searches, how is it that 40 percent of SEOs and website owners are reporting an impact?” he said.